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As the presidential nomination draws near for President Biden and Donald Trump, their anticipated rematch in Georgia during the general election appears to be another tight race. Trump currently maintains a slight advantage over Mr. Biden among voters, but this lead is only within the possible error range. The difference is due to a small number of Mr. Biden’s previous voters now supporting Trump, potentially influenced by positive opinions about how Trump’s policies would impact the financial situations of Georgia residents.
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The statement made by the president in his Saymessage field. State of the Union address
The concept that our democracy is in danger within our own country may strike a chord with the Democratic party, but voters in Georgia are more inclined to attribute this threat to Trump rather than Mr. Biden, as they believe he would strengthen U.S. democracy. However, Mr. Biden’s approval rating on this particular issue is actually in the negative, with a third of his supporters expressing doubt that his policies in a second term would have any significant impact.
Many of Trump’s supporters, who hold onto the belief that there was significant voter fraud in Georgia during the 2020 election, are the ones influencing his stance on democracy. Another contributing factor to why Trump’s advocates may see him as being in favor of democracy is due to the widespread belief among them that the accusations and legal actions against him are influenced by political motives.
The Dobbs ruling remains a topic of importance for voters. While most Georgia voters support the legality of abortions in the state, not all of them are aligned with the Democratic party. Approximately 30% of these voters currently favor Trump over Biden, making them a noteworthy group to monitor throughout the campaign.
Simultaneously, a majority of individuals believe that Mr. Biden is not adequately addressing inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border, and these opinions are connected to their intended vote. Trump supporters who previously voted for Biden in 2020 and do not believe he is addressing these matters enough are more inclined to support Trump currently, compared to those who think Mr. Biden’s attention to these matters is sufficient.
Persuasion and turnout
In the year 2020, Georgia voted for a Democratic candidate for the first time in many years, though by a small margin. Joe Biden won the state over Donald Trump by less than 12,000 votes, which was approximately a quarter of a percentage point.
The beginning of a difference in voter turnout is apparent, creating a need for a campaign focused on not only convincing, but also motivating voters. Republicans and those who voted for Trump in 2020 are more likely than Democrats and Biden voters to declare that they will definitely vote.
Republicans are currently giving more thought to the race than Democrats.
Most voters here already report thinking about the presidential race “a lot” — perhaps partly due to the primaries occurring now. And while the vast majority of voters are planning to turn out this fall. This six-point turnout gap results in a likely 2024 electorate with a slightly higher share of Trump ’20 voters.
Moreover, a larger number of people who voted for Biden in the 2020 election are now considering switching parties compared to those who voted for Trump. It is important to note that these voters make up a small but influential portion of the voting population. Additionally, Trump’s current lead is primarily due to convincing voters rather than a difference in voter turnout.
Trump indictments
If Trump were to be found guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 election, most of his supporters would still deem him capable of being the president. This sentiment holds true even among his primary voters in recent GOP nominating contests. However, approximately 20% of his supporters in Georgia would not view him as fit for the presidency if he were to be found guilty by a court.
Is it possible for a conviction to sway opinions? The data is inconclusive. Those who voted for Trump and deem him unsuitable also do not have positive opinions of Mr. Biden, and they have doubts about his mental and physical capabilities. This demographic may have to choose between two candidates they see as unqualified, but for varying reasons.
Overall, the general public in the state has varying opinions on the Trump charges. Some are more worried that they are driven by political motives rather than his actual intentions to overturn the election. However, a majority believes that he would not be suited to hold the position of president if he were proven guilty.
Who is switching?
One of the more noticeable shifts comes from the diverse suburbs around Atlanta. Voters in this competitive part of the state were critical to Mr. Biden’s success four years ago, but they now lean Trump’s way.
Overall, there has been a slight increase in support for Trump among voters who identify as people of color. Although these gains are minimal and Biden still maintains a significant advantage among this demographic, any potential shift from blue to red could have an impact in a tight election.
Many African American voters believe that President Trump is making efforts to gain their support. In the state of Georgia, Black voters make up approximately one-third of the electorate, with 17% of them currently choosing Trump over Joe Biden. While this is a slight increase from Trump’s support in the state during the 2020 election, Biden’s success in Georgia largely depends on maintaining a strong lead among this crucial demographic. It’s important to keep an eye on this group, as it would be more difficult for the president to replicate his previous performance if more of them switch their support or if a significant number of Black voters are not motivated to vote in this year’s election.
Groups more likely to consider switching from voting for Mr. Biden four years ago to voting for Trump include voters who are not white, voters under the age of 50, and male voters. There is also a higher rate of switching among self-identified moderates and independents, as well as voters who believe that a victory for Mr. Biden would not make a difference in the strength of American democracy.
According to our research, the Biden campaign will face obstacles in winning over certain groups crucial to their 2020 coalition. They will need to rally these voters to not only turn out for the president once again, but also to vote against Trump if necessary. This task becomes even harder if swing voters prioritize economic concerns like inflation over broad concepts like democracy and individual rights.
Unlike national economic sentiment
The majority of voters in Georgia have a positive perception of the state’s economy. Governor Brian Kemp also has high ratings from voters, with approximately two-thirds approving of his performance. This even includes about half of Democratic voters.
This survey, conducted by CBS News and YouGov, included 1,133 registered voters from Georgia who were interviewed from March 4-11, 2024. The sample was adjusted based on factors such as gender, age, race, education, and geographic region using U.S. Census data and voter records, as well as past voting patterns. The margin of error is ±3.9 points.
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Source: cbsnews.com